Keystone Conference: Megatrends for Mediators in Governance

by Kirk Emerson

October 2006
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25 Year Megatrends in Governance (20,000 ft view)

General trends (next 10 years):

“Tectonic shifts in the boundaries of the state”
Don Kettl

  • Continued “hollowing out” or “retreat” of the state with increasing reduction or privatization of governmental functions
  • Continued decline in domestic government spending and GDP (as security concerns and international crises dominate)
  • Stronger protections of private property and reduced investments in public goods
  • Continued decline in trust of public institutions and accelerated demand for accountability in public decision making
  • Emergence of new crossboundary/intergovernmental/public-private institutional mechanisms
Alternative or serial longer term trajectories at the national level:

  • Continue to “muddle through”
  • Evolution of public/private governing networks for service delivery, emergency mgt, and environmental enforcement (e.g., e-governance models, Gates and Buffet philanthropy)
  • Major crisis (security/fiscal/climatic/constitutional) and resurgence of the social welfare state (a new New Deal)
  • Globalization -> stronger regional (multi-state) alliances for trade, environmental protection, emergency management, social services (could lead to new sectionalism)
  • Re-entry into world governance structures for trade, security, pandemics, climate change, disaster relief and relocation of environmental refugees

Hope:

Emergence of collaborative leadership: that out of the void or necessity or crisis, a new generation of committed, more diverse public leaders demand and deliver new collaborative governance models to address critical shared problems.



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Biography



Kirk Emerson was appointed Director of the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution in 1998 by the Board of Trustees of the Morris K. Udall Foundation. She has overseen the strategic direction, organizational development and program administration of the Institute since its inception. She is responsible for the overall performance and management of the Institute and represents the Institute broadly. Kirk is directly involved in selected cases and projects, devoting most of her professional time to early case consultation, process design, and facilitation of interagency conflicts. In addition, Kirk works with federal agencies in developing other ECR programs through strategic planning, training, system design and program evaluation.

Prior to her work at the U.S. Institute, Kirk developed and coordinated the environmental conflict resolution program at The University of Arizona's Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, where she conducted research, taught, and directed several conflict management and public involvement projects involving water resources, endangered species, and western range policies. Kirk has taught graduate and undergraduate courses on conflict resolution and environmental law and has written on environmental mediation, land use law, and environmental policy. She received the William Anderson Award from the American Political Science Association for her dissertation on regulatory takings and state property rights laws in 1998.



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